Pacers, Lakers Primed for Showdown

Given the way these two teams are playing, my prediction – on its face – appears to be a blow of the wind, who’s hot this moment, prognostication. The Pacers have won 7 out of 10. The Lakers have compiled an astounding 16-game winning streak. Let’s take a gander at the teams, and their chief roadblocks to the title.

The Indiana Pacers have become an enigma over the past few years. Last season, they were stunned by the Knicks in the conference finals. Many would use that as a measuring stick for this season. I would, but only if the Pacers had packed it in this season, which they haven’t. In the off-season, they made a questionable move by shipping hard-nosed frontcourter Antonio Davis to Toronto for a guy who doesn’t shave (Jonathon Bender).

The loss of Davis has been handsomely compensated by the play of Jalen Rose and Austin Croshere. Reggie Miller and Rick Smits have tapered a bit, but Dale Davis goes about his rebounding and defense business. Point guard Mark Jackson doesn’t post glamorous stats, but he always seems to hit the big shot or dish out the clutch assist. Those qualities become more vital during the playoffs.

One of the biggest advantages for the Pacers, is that every other team in their division is rebuilding. The Raptors have surged lately, holding the best road record in the division. Despite the Vince Carter hype and their sudden membership into the NBC-TV fraternity, the Raptors are still a year or two away from serious contention.

The biggest challenges to a potential Larry Bird swan song inhabit the Atlantic division. Miami, New York and Philadelphia could all pose problems for the Pacers, and each other. The Knicks might be primed for another sneak-up run, but constant injuries and law of averages (a two-year surprise not likely) might seal their fate.

Miami holds a slim lead on the Knicks in the division, seemingly with smoke and mirrors. Tim Hardaway and Alonzo Mourning are the cornerstones, but only Mourning can be relied upon during a playoff run. Hardaway has been playing on one leg all year. The Heat have lost to all sorts of paltry opponents this season. Despite their defensive prowess, their frequent offensive funks can’t be dismissed.

Perhaps the biggest statistic that points to a Pacer conference title is their 27-2 home record. They lead the Heat by four games for the best Eastern Conference record. If they sustain that supremacy, they will acquire home-court advantage throughout the conference playoffs. The Knicks and Heat have succeeded away from their home cooking in the past, but both teams have played much worse on the road this season.

Westward ho, my friends. Is it difficult to predict a championship run for the Lakers? Well, of course it is. In recent years, talent minus discipline equaled early playoff exits. This year, I predict a breakthrough. Two guys render that quasi-risk justifiable: Shaquille O’Neal and Phil Jackson. O’Neal is on pace for an MVP award and Phil Jackson continues to get the most out of anybody who plays for him. The Lakers have teased us before. 

But the maturity and growth of Kobe Bryant, and the veteran presence of Ron Harper (Jackson disciple), Robert Horry, Rick Fox and AC Green, make for a dangerous post-season squad. Oh, and Glen Rice too. He’s still somewhat of a puzzle to this team, but take him for granted come playoff time, and you’ll be looking down the barrel of dead-eye jumpers and a 30-point night.

The two staunchest barriers to the Lakers are the Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz (well OK, maybe the San Antonio Spurs too). The Blazers have fallen a bit since their loss to the Lakers over a week ago. Going into that game, the teams had identical records and winning streaks. As of this past Wednesday, the Lakers held a modest three-game lead.

The Lakers aren’t the only team anointed by talent alone. The Blazers are stacked to the hilt. They have a different star every night, which makes preparation for a potential opponent quite cloudy. But I get the sense that their roster is a tad too democratic. Who is going to step it up in the playoffs? Will Scottie Pippen’s playoff experiences transcend to his new team?

One of the keys to capturing the Pacific division, is that the winner will probably get home court advantage throughout. The loser will inherit a #3 seeding in the conference playoffs. (The other division-winner can’t be lower than #2, regardless of their record). If the Blazers can’t catch the Lakers, they will only host playoff series’ against teams they’re expected to triumph over anyway (most likely Minnesota or Seattle).

What about the Utah Jazz? Every year, they seem destined for rocking chairs. But they’re like that old uncle at family events – always there. The Midwest Division is still up for grabs, with the Jazz holding a 1-1/2 game lead over defending champion San Antonio. Even if these teams don’t reach the finals, if a Portland-LA matchup is inevitable, the winner might be determined by how badly a Utah or San Antonio beats them up in a semi-final series.

An Indiana-Lakers final would be intriguing. I hesitate to predict the NBA champion. (I’ll wait to see if "this" forecast is correct.)

That’s why they play the games.