hile watching
Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., et al bash batting-practice homers out of
Turner Field in the 2000 All-Star Home Run Derby, my thoughts took a brief
pitstop to the greatest home run hitter of all-time and his record 756
clouts, Hank Aaron. Thus, I queried the following: Will anybody ever
break this record?
The two most celebrated candidates to break Aaron’s mark are Mark
McGwire and Ken Griffey Jr. Heading into the 2000 season, McGwire had
smacked 522 out of the park, with Griffey hammering 398. Big Mac has the
numbers on his side (being only 234 shy of Aaron), while Junior has time
on his (being a few months shy of age 31).
While it’s plenty of fun to engage in casual narratives on the
subject, allow me to temporarily relinquish the stage to pioneers of
modern baseball statistical analysis, STATS, Inc.â
. They’ve done ample number-crunching on this subject so the rest of us
don’t have to. The less-than-perfect system they use to project such
feats is called the Career Assessment system (yup, it’s got a
name).
I won’t exhaust you with the mathematical formula. In a nutshell, it
uses a player’s performance over the last three seasons to estimate
their chances at reaching any goal, not just home runs. Age is also
factored into the equation. Entering the 2000 season (with Griffey being
29 years young at the time of the calculation), STATS estimates that
McGwire has a 48% chance of breaking the record, with Griffey right behind
at 44%. Those are pretty good chances, wouldn’t you say? Next in line is
Sosa at 35%.
Comparing the top two sluggers is intriguing if only because of their
contrasting reasons for eventual success or failure at catching Aaron.
McGwire has entertained us for years with his monster drives over walls
and stadiums, while Junior has quietly (OK, maybe not quietly) sneaked up
and qualified for this discussion at a relatively young age.
Let’s start with McGwire. The St. Louis Cardinal first baseman is
only 205 behind Aaron, counting the 30 he walloped before the 2000
All-Star break. His per season home run average (in 14 seasons) is just
32, but injuries have undoubtedly skewed that number. McGwire appeared in
just 92 games in the 1986, 1993, and 1994 seasons combined. What is more
astounding than his career average (and more pertinent) is his totals from
the last three seasons: 68, 70, and 58 (an average of 65).
Granted, even Mike Bordick has turned into a home-run threat in this
homer-happy era. But the mere existence of this trend speaks directly to
McGwire’s true chance of surpassing Aaron. Let’s assume that McGwire
will hit another 30 the rest of this season. That would give him 582, a
mere 174 behind Aaron. At age 36, if he plays three more seasons, McGwire
would have to average 58 per year to reach the goal. Within reach, wouldn’t
you say?
What about Junior? Counting his 28 dingers in the first half of 2000,
he sits comfortably at 428 for his career, or 37 per for 11 full seasons.
Like McGwire, Griffey’s average over the past three full seasons climbs
drastically (48, 56, and 56 comes averages to 53 per season). The Kid
definitely has youth on his side. This means that he will play more
seasons in this so-called home-run era than McGwire (and puts young
sluggers such as Juan Gonzalez and Alex Rodriquez into the career homer
picture too). We know Junior has the raw ability. But does he have the
sustainability?
The biggest obstacle for McGwire is age and propensity for injury. This
isn’t unique to him, as most players begin to decline at an age younger
than his. For Junior, it’s two things. Will he play long enough in this
money-lucrative age, and when will his body show signs of age-induced
breakdown (or God forbid, a major injury)?
By the way, Hank Aaron never hit more than 47 home runs in a single
season. Keep in mind that Aaron played 23 seasons, a number that neither
McGwire or Junior is liable to attain. Imagine if Griffey does play 23
years. That would project to over 900 …scary, isn’t it?
… Much praise to Pete Sampras for capturing his 7th
Wimbledon singles title last weekend. He’s no John McEnroe in the flair
and charisma department, but contrary to those who long for the
McEnroe-Conners shouting matches, I respect Pete for his brand of calm and
class.
… Remember Ruben Sierra, the former, so-called "next"
Roberto Clemente? Well, this past Wednesday, Sierra played in the AAA
minor league all-star game. He becomes the first player ever to play in a
minor league mid-season classic "after" playing in a major
league one. Actually, he played in four MLB all-star battles for the Texas
Rangers.
… A big sigh of relief for this Milwaukee Bucks fan after learning
that head coach George Karl will not be a candidate for the North Carolina
post. The NC gig is Karl’s "dream job" but to those of us in
Brew Town, Karl has become our "dream coach."
… Speaking of the NBA, whom will the Orlando Magic pursue now that
Duncan is out of the picture? Tracy McGrady? Tim Thomas?
… Congratulations to my little brother Pete Rathkamp for being the
first respondent to my What is a BollWeevil question in a previous
column (pertaining to the nickname of the minor league Piedmont
BollWeevils of Kannapolis, NC). Even though I could fill three columns
with the fascinating information Pete sent me, I’ll give you my own
super-scaled down definition: A boll weevil is an ugly little
insect that preys on cotton fields in the south. Thanks again Pete!
