An Ichiro run worth
more than Bonds

Let's begin with the premise that something more rare is, arguably, more valuable and naturally, more unique. If everybody on your block has a high school diploma, with you being the only person with a college degree, your accomplishment is, by nature, more unique. Assuming the job market is tailored more to you, that same accomplishment also holds more value.

Three years ago, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were locked in battle that brought excitement, thrill and drama to a sport that some perceived lacked all three. As captivating as they were, their co-battle for Roger Maris' throne entertained doubts about how special their feats were. Technically, both players broke Maris' record, with Big Mac surpassing Slammin Sammy by four dingers (70-66). At the very least, their concurrent success quantified the home run explosion that's been cultivating for quite some time.

Comparing power hitters to singles hitters might be like pitting apples against oranges. But Bonds is chasing a record that's just a year older than my youngest son (three). Ichiro's target is eleven years older than my dear, sweet mother (81). George Sisler holds the all-time record in hits with 257, back in 1920. Mark McGwire broke Roger Maris’ record, which had stood for 37 years at 61. Does the timeframe diminish what Bonds is trying to accomplish? Maybe, maybe not.

The fact that Bonds is threatening McGwire’s record is a testament to Bonds skills, most definitely. But it also denotes the era in which he is playing. McGwire broke Maris’ mark in an obvious home-run era. Sisler set his mark in a singles-hitter era (save Babe Ruth himself). Ichiro Suzuki, who most casual fans had not heard of before this season, is displaying his punch-and-run hitting style in an era where power is God, and regular hits mere disciples.

When I witness a true singles hitter in a power era, my thoughts turn to the Big Bambino himself. No, Ruth wasn’t a singles hitter. But he did defy the style of his era and led the genesis into the power explosion we see today, every day. Ruth hit more homers in single seasons than entire teams did in the same span. Suzuki is somewhat of a throwback to the norm of that era. Does this make his quest more special than Bonds? I think so.

Last season, Anaheim Angels outfielder Darin Erstad amassed 240 hits, the most since Wade Boggs in 1985 (who also had 240). There wasn’t much national fanfare, but we all know why. A quick glance into the STATS Inc. All-Time Baseball Sourcebook reveals that only ten players have collected more hits than Erstad – dating back to 1876. (Sisler, in fact, cracked 246 more two years after his 257, almost breaking his own record.)

As of Tuesday, June 20^th, Barry Bonds had smashed 37 homers, which is 52% of the number he needs (71). Bonds has played in 65 - or 93% - of San Francisco’s 70 games. Assuming he plays in 93% of the remaining games, he has 85 more games in which to hit 34 more homers. If you believe in the law of averages (and maybe the point of diminishing returns), he quite likely will tail off a bit. Right now, he could afford to and still reach the record. Bonds would have to hit three fewer homers in 20 more games (than he has so far), which is far less than the pace he has set already. I’d say his chances are darn good.

How good are Ichiro’s? Well, through this past Tuesday, he has played in all but one of the Mariners’ games and collected 110 hits. That’s puts him at 43% of the number he needs (258) to eclipse Sisler’s mark. If he continues to play in 99% of Seattle’s games, it means that he’s only played in 42% of the number of games he’s likely to play, thus far. What’s intriguing about Suzuki is that we can’t apply much historical trending to his own career. He’s a MLB rookie, but a baseball veteran, having played in 9+ seasons in his native Japan.

We could predict a nominal drop-off, similar to what bit Erstad late last season. No dis-respect to Darin, but we could safely say that his wonderful season was a bit fluky. How can we dispute that maybe, just maybe, this is the norm for Ichiro?. As Bonds inches closer to McGwire’s mark, will teams pitch around Barry? They certainly won’t dance around the plate against Suzuki, being a lead-off hitter. Besides, in a given at bat, it’s easier to hit a single than it is a homer. And all Ichiro needs is singles.

The likelihood of reaching their respective pinnacles notwithstanding, the remainder of the season will provide a fun gaze heading into the dog days of the baseball summer. While most will pin their attention on Bonds, I’m gonna lend an eye to Suzuki and his continued magical entrance onto the American baseball stage. The McGwire-Sosa race is still fresh in my mind. All we know about Sisler resides in history books. I deem it more interesting to compare Ichiro with Sisler, if need be. Comparing Bonds to his current peers is a little less sexy.

I know, I know. Chicks dig the long ball.