"Home
Sweet Home"
isn’t always so
by Tom Rathkamp
 he
NFL playoffs are well under way, and the bandwagon jumpers and presumptive
prognosticators are crawling out of the woodwork in droves. Time for the
pigskin rooters to patronize the "wannabes" and anoint the
favorites. This year’s most commonly predicted matchup for Super Bowl I
of the new millennium is Indianapolis vs. St. Louis.
A safe pick indeed, but as
someone once said, "lest we learn from history, we are doomed to
repeat it." Before we leap into the particulars of a single playoff
pairing, allow me to share some statistical comparisons between a team
from last season and a team from this season. We’ll call them Team A and
Team B.
Points scored
Team A 556
Team B 526
Points allowed
Team A 335
Team B 242
Average margin of victory
Team A 16
Team B 17
Regular season home record
Team A 8-0
Team B 8-0
Winning percentage of opponents
Team A .446
Team B .363
Team A is the Minnesota Vikings
of 1998. Team B is the St. Louis Rams of 1999. Ironically, these two teams
face each other in one of this weekend’s NFC semi-final games. The Rams
are the favorites, and clearly so. They raced to a 13-3 record, and
clinched the NFC West title in August. Kurt Warner came out of nowhere to
throw 41 touchdowns (only 13 INT’s), and capture a much-deserved MVP
award. Marshall Faulk may have had the best season of any running back,
ever.
Before you hand the Rams the NFC
crown, however, remember the 1998 Vikings. The Purple People Eaters took a
commanding 15-1 regular season mark into the playoffs, only to lose a home
game in the NFC title tilt against the Atlanta Falcons. Anybody who thinks
the Rams’ journey to the Super Bowl will be a cinch doesn’t need to
drudge through scores of NFL campaigns for examples of the contrary. Just
peek around the corner at last year’s Vikes. If last year’s Vikings
can lose, so can this year’s Rams.
A battle between last season’s
Vikings and this year’s Rams would be tantalizing. Granted, the 1999
version of the Vikings isn’t as dominant, but they just might be more
prepared, and humbled, to sneak through a much weaker NFC this season.
These are the reasons the Vikings
could win on Sunday against the so-called unbeatable Rams.
The Vikings players have more
playoff experience. That always counts for something. Also, the Rams’
rise to stardom is much more sudden than dominant teams of the past. If
they can’t handle the glare of the spotlight, Minnesota could steal
this one.
The Vikings’ average margin
of victory this season was 4. If this game is close in the 4th
quarter, advantage Vikings.
The Rams defense is good, but a
tad overrated given their explosive offense. Opponents almost always
reverted entirely to the passing game after the first quarter because
the Ram’s offense jumped out to quick, insurmountable leads. Besides,
the Vikings faced the Tampa Bay defense twice this season.
The Rams need Marshall Faulk
more than the Vikings need Robert Smith. Stopping Faulk is a tough task,
but the Lions did it in week 7 and beat the Rams.
Kurt Warner is a virtual
rookie. Rookie quarterbacks don’t often win playoff games.
Because of so-called parity
(mediocrity), the 13-3 Rams aren’t as good as 13-3 teams of
yesteryear. Just look at the NFC West for evidence. Only one team the
Rams played this season finished over .500 (Tennessee).
There are as many – if not more
– reasons why the Vikings could lose this game. Their defense is porous,
although not as gaping in the last four games. If they don’t find an
answer to Faulk, this game could get ugly. This sounds radical, but the
Vikings should treat Faulk like a wide receiver and assign a defensive
back to him, at times. (Quick editorial: Like the NBA, zone
defenses should be abolished in the NFL.)
The key to Minnesota is to strike
early and often. They must force the Rams to play from behind, which was
unheard of in the Rams’ regular season slate. Realistically, Vikings
fans merely hope that their offense is just a tad more potent than the
Rams’. If Warner and George get avid protection, this could be a 42-38
game.
The Rams have been a dominant
team this season, no doubt. Given the two team’s similar styles though,
this game is closer than meets the eye. The Rams’ biggest advantage is
home field. Viking fans pray that this advantage is as negligible to the
Rams as it was to the Vikings last season.
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