Stacking Up Patriots Against
NFL’s All-Time Best

he best time – or worst time – to immerse a recent champion into history is the day after the Super Bowl. The best time because the game, and season, is fresh in your mind. The worst time because, well, for the same reason.

Almost two weeks removed from the New England Patriots’ expected triumph over the Philadelphia Eagles, chatter about the Patriots’ three Lombardi trophies in the last four seasons centers around the word dynasty. Lovers of the great dynasties of the past minimize the Patriots’ accomplishments for several reasons, the least of which is that parity curtails dominance.

Even if we assume that none of the Patriots teams were as good as the 60’s Packers, 70’s Steelers, or 80’s 49ers, a team isn’t labeled a dynasty on the basis of teams and eras that precede them; they’re branded that way because of their perceived dominance over the teams they’re actually competing against.

In this era, three Super Bowls in four seasons is a dynasty. Has the definition of a dynasty changed? Perhaps. The biggest changing factor thrown around is the salary cap; in other words, the Patriots’ run in the salary cap era is astonishing. I may be in the minority, but proclaiming their accomplishments more difficult than say, what the 70’s Steelers did, is premature. In a given season, within a given arbitrarily-defined era, everybody competes under the same rules.

The day after the Super Bowl, a national radio sports commentator insisted that this year’s Patriots team is every bit as good as any of the aforementioned Super champions. Again, the day after the Super Bowl, emotions, sentiments, and shotgun opinions were at their summit. Wondering whether this opinion held any validity, I decided to investigate this myself (since it’s not in my nature to take an opinion on face value, not even my own).

As a source for which great teams to compare to this year’s Patriots team, I referenced the 2002 book written by Eddie Epstein: Dominance: the Best Seasons of Pro Football’s Greatest Teams. Epstein ranked the top 11 teams since 1950. He made 1950 the beginning year because A) that was the first year after the National Football League and the All-America Football Conference merger, and B) certain strategy and playing style differences changed dramatically after 1950.

He used a similar method as the one he and co-author Rob Neyer employed in their earlier book, Baseball Dynasties, using statistical functions such as average and standard deviation to compare teams and normalize era differences.

The top 11 teams, according to Epstein, were the following (close your eyes if you haven’t read the book):

1. 1985 Chicago Bears
2. 1991 Washington Redskins
3. 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers
4. 1962 Green Bay Packers
5. 1989 San Francisco 49ers
6. 1996 Green Bay Packers
7. 1972 Miami Dolphins
8. 1994 San Francisco 49ers
9. 1971 Dallas Cowboys
10. 1999 St. Louis Rams
11. (tie) 1955 Cleveland Browns and 1958 Baltimore Colts

Note: Epstein offers a disclaimer in the book, writing that he is not suggesting that the 1955 Colts can be directly compared to the 1999 Rams. His methods measure how much a team dominated its competition in a particular season, not how they would do if placed in a different era.

Back to the list.

Before the heavy sighs of disagreement, allow me to preface that Epstein didn’t compile this list based on sheer opinion. Epstein used a sound, objective method to attempt to determine the most dominant single-season teams in history. As he opines on the last page of the book, Epstein admits his methods are not the final word on the subject.

In Dominance, Epstein used the following criteria:

• Regular season record
• Power Index (PI)
• Regular season performance against teams with winning records
• Playoff performance
• Ability to win on the road

Author’s (me) note: In his book, Epstein adjusted the Power Index (PI for strength of schedule, which resulted in an Adjusted Power Index (API). I stuck with PI, since he did not show how he calculated API.

Without delving into a tedious statistical thesis, Power Index (PI) is a measure used to evaluate teams, and is especially adept at minimizing the effect of era differences. A PI of 6.00, Epstein determined, is the mark of excellence for a football team. Epstein used the following statistical categories: points scored, points allowed, yards gained, yards allowed. Every team in his book had a PI of 6.00 or greater.

The 1996 Green Bay Packers had the highest PI score: 7.49. Why were they ranked 6^th? Because they were 0-3 on the road against teams with winning records.

If you want to dispute Epstein’s teams or rankings, I suggest you read the book (which, by the way, has my ringing endorsement). For now, let’s examine how this year’s Patriots stack up against the teams on Epstein’s list.

Quite frankly, the PI results for the 2004-2005 Patriots astonished me. Well, maybe they didn’t. Over the past few years, or more specifically, during the salary cap era, the difference between the best teams in the league and the worst teams in the league has diminished. Teams of recent past regress more towards the league mean than ever before.

The PI for the 2005 Patriots was (prepare yourself) 3.8 ……. 3.8 ??….

Where does such a paltry number come from?

To figure PI, you first compute the mean, or average of each category for the league: points scored, points allowed, yards gained, and yards allowed. For each category, you subtract the league average from the team’s value (we’ll call this A). You then determine the standard deviation for that category for the entire league (we’ll call this B). Finally, you take A divided by B, which provides the number of standard deviations (SD’s) for that category.

Repeat this process for each category, then add up all the SD’s to arrive at your Power Index. For points allowed and yards against, you may end up with negative numbers - especially with above-average teams - since less is more. Simply turn the negative into a positive after figuring those categories.

With help from the Internet and Microsoft Excel, I did the same for this season’s Patriots.

The 2004-2005 New England Patriots PI scores were as follows:

-------------------------------------

3.8

While it’s clear the Patriots were efficient in their climb to the top of the NFL hill, it’s also apparent that, across the board, they weren’t particularly dominating.

Switching to the other factors Epstein considered in his book, the Patriots were 1-2 on the road against teams with winning records during the regular season. On the flip side, the two teams they lost to (Indianapolis and Pittsburgh) were the same two teams they smoked in the playoffs. If I were rating this team, the latter would more than compensate for the former. Their regular season record was 14-2 and they dominated an overrated Steelers team on the road.

Bottom line? What the New England Patriots accomplished is well-deserved and more than admirable. They are doing what they need to do in an era where other teams have failed to do. Given the socialistic restrictions on building a team in today’s NFL, maybe their accomplishment is more difficult than the 60’s Packers or 70’s Steelers did.

That being said, it is clear that today’s Super Bowl champions relinquish some of the dominance of teams past. If you’re a fan of excellence, as yours truly is, satisfaction falls short. If you live in the Boston area or have Tom Brady and Cory Dillon on your fantasy team, excellence is as relevant as Jose Canseco at a MLB Players Union meeting.

Any comments, criticisms, or condemnations on this
sports column or previous ones? Feel free to email me at tommyr@wi.rr.com.